This {photograph} taken on Jan. 21, 2026 reveals signage of the Coinbase emblem through the World Financial Discussion board (WEF) annual assembly in Davos.
Ina Fassbender | AFP | Getty Pictures
As bitcoin costs fell but once more within the second quarter, merchants on prediction market platform Kalshi suppose Coinbase’s buying and selling volumes suffered as soon as once more.
The cryptocurrency buying and selling platform is anticipated to put up a 3rd consecutive quarterly decline of buying and selling volumes, and speculators are additionally feeling assured that complete buying and selling quantity will slip beneath $200 billion for the primary time since third quarter 2024.
Merchants give a 41% probability that buying and selling quantity is above $160 billion, and only a 25% probability it is above $170 billion. That compares to analysts’ consensus estimates for $168.5 billion, in accordance with FactSet.
Speculators are extra sure quantity might be above $150 billion, giving {that a} 99% probability of taking place.
Coinbase is ready to ship its second-quarter earnings report on July 30.
The contract on Kalshi asks merchants if Coinbase buying and selling quantity might be above varied ranges, and the end result is resolved utilizing data from funding analysis platform Fiscal.ai.
Shares of Coinbase are down greater than 55% since bitcoin costs — that are off barely lower than 50% — peaked in October 2025. Coinbase buying and selling quantity’s earlier declines within the first quarter of 2026 and fourth quarter of 2025 got here additionally as Bitcoin costs tumbled over that interval.
Coinbase since Oct. 7, 2025.
Bitcoin costs fell once more within the second quarter, off about 12%.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a industrial relationship that features buyer acquisition and a minority funding.
